Good morning from Atlanta,
The Padres have been playing well enough lately that another low-scoring, one-run loss didn’t seem so bad.
That was how they felt for the most part after dropping a 2-1 decision to the Phillies yesterday.
And that was how they were justified to feel.
For the most part.
It is true the Padres have hit more consistently over the past week or so.
They have a .705 OPS during the past 10 games, 61 points higher than it had been over the previous 44 games.
They finished 6-4 on their longest homestand of the season, which took them into the All-Star break with a 52-44 record.
“If you go 6-4 over the course of every 10 games, you’re going to win 96 games,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said.
He is actually shorting by one win a team that plays .600 baseball from the start of the season. And from this point, the Padres winning at that clip over their final 66 games would get them to 92 wins.
That would be one off their total from last season and almost certainly good enough to earn a postseason berth. In the three seasons since MLB went to six postseason teams in each league, the final seed in the National League has finished with 89 wins (2024), 84 wins (‘23) and 87 wins (‘22).
The Padres played at a .683 clip (43-20) after the break in 2024. That was the 11th-best second-half record in the major leagues since 2000 and the Padres’ best second-half record ever.
“We’ve done it before,” Xander Bogaerts said. “And it’s pretty much the same guys (from last year). But that doesn’t mean we will do it again.”
If they are to come close, yesterday was a good reminder of what almost certainly cannot keep happening with such regularity.
The Padres simply have to score more.
They are going to burn out their pitching staff — primarily their bullpen, which cannot keep relying on its four highest-leverage relievers with such regularity.
Get this:
The Padres, who have won seven of their 12 games this month, have led by more than one run in just 17 innings in those 12 games. That includes eight innings in their first game of the month.
The last time they led by more than two runs was July 6, and they have led by more than one run for just three innings in the seven games since then.
All that does is continue a trend that dates back to May in which Padres relief pitchers are under constant pressure.
Pressure? Of the 59 times a Padres reliever has entered a game with a lead since May 16, that lead has been one run 47 times.
Before yesterday, Padres relievers had made a total of 43 appearances in July. Of those, 14 came in games they led by one run and 11 came in tied games. And the bullpen had protected all those leads and kept all those ties.
It finally cracked yesterday. Because it is inevitable a pitcher will eventually allow a run.
You can read in my game story (here) about what happened yesterday.
We have talked so so so so much about the Padres’ offense in this space and in other stories. And I will write about it again before the start of the second half on Friday.
It seems that after nearly 100 games, we should understand the pitching is the strength of the team and might just have to carry it.
That is OK.
But it almost certainly cannot be like this.
Yesterday was the Padres’ 35th one-run game, fourth most in the major leagues. They have won 21 of those games, a .600 winning percentage that is fifth best in MLB.
They are 13-6 in games decided by two runs, which is the second-best such record in the majors.
Impressive. And unsustainable.
The Padres are fond of saying all they strive to do is score one more run than the other team each day. But privately, most people in the organization say pretty much the same thing when asked if the Padres can continue winning this way and keep their key relievers healthy.
That answer is something like, “Hell no.”
Shildt would never say that.
But the quip he made the other night did give away his weariness.
Shildt spent several seconds praising his team for its ability to win on the margins, which is what it generally takes to win the types of games they are winning. Then he closed his thought by saying, “But it is legal to win 7-3 or 8-2.”
The Padres have the major leagues’ 10th-best record and its 17th-highest run differential (plus-7).
For perspective on how rare the Padres’ success is, consider that they are one of 13 teams since 1985 to start a season 52-44 or better while having a run differential equal to or lower than plus-7. Of the previous 12, six finished with at least 87 wins.
King progress
Part of the Padres’ optimism about the second half centers on what happened in the bullpen yesterday morning.
Starting pitcher Michael King threw 35 pitches and reached 92 mph with his fastball in his second full-go bullpen session.
“Everything felt good,” he said afterward. “So now it’s dad time.”
King’s wife, Sheila, will give birth to their first child in the next day or two.
It has not been determined yet whether King will join the Padres on the upcoming 10-game trip that follows the break. But the next step, probably coming at the end of the week, is expected to be an “up-down” in the bullpen.
(An up-down generally involves a pitcher throwing 20 or so pitches before resting and then throwing 20 or so more pitches to simulate working two innings.)
King has been out since mid-May with a nerve impingement near his right shoulder and is essentially in build-up mode. Since he did not have a tissue or ligament injury, there is not considered a risk of re-injury. His returning to action after the nerve resumed firing is a matter of building up his strength and endurance.
“I say it’s like spring training because I feel fully healthy and need to build,” he said. “But it’s definitely a more accelerated mode than that.”
The anticipation is that King, who ranked sixth in the National League with a 2.59 ERA through his first 10 starts, will return in mid-August.
A catch
Luis Campusano was called up yesterday to replace Gavin Sheets on the active roster, as Sheets went on the paternity list.
Campusano arrived at the ballpark about two hours before yesterday’s game and served as the Padres’ designated hitter. It went about as well as any of his other games in the major leagues this season.
Rather than delve into the catcher situation and how Campusano might fit into it for a third time, I will refer you to Tom Krasovic’s column (here) in which he addressed the Padres’ backstop problem.
Some in the organization believe the aim should be for Campusano to get regular time in the lineup, and multiple sources indicated over the past week that chance will come after the break.
None of the people pushing for Campusano to get regular at-bats as one of the team’s catchers is predicting he is the answer to their offensive woes at the position. But they contend the team owes it to him and to itself to see if he can help when given consistent at-bats.
Higher power
Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr., whose seasons have run a somewhat similarly turbulent course, have been talking about things beyond their control.
So after the first of Merrill’s two home runs Saturday, they shared a moment in the dugout.
Jackson Merrill celebrating down the dugout, capped off with a special handshake with fellow (formerly !?) slumper Fernando Tatis Jr pic.twitter.com/WSYOcqsbSA
— llocatiannation, we’re back (@llocatiann) July 13, 2025
“Just trusting God,” Merrill said yesterday. “That’s kind of where we were at, you know. I mean, it’s out of our control at some points. You’re going through a big slump. Trust God, that’s kind of where we were at. … We weren’t checked out. We’re still checked in, focusing, trying our best. But we understand there’s a certain point in the game where it’s out of our control. Hitting balls 104 (mph) that are getting caught at the track. You gotta trust God that it’s going to play out. And that’s kind of where we were at.”
You can read in my game story from Saturday (here) what Merrill had to say after breaking a run of 24 plate appearances without reaching base and hitting two-game tying home runs in a 5-4 victory.
Annie Heilbrunn talked to Merrill yesterday morning about what he might learn from going through struggles. I thought his answer was classic Merrill, who at times is every bit of 22 years old and at times drops the wisdom of a 22-year veteran.
Tidbits
- The Padres made a high schooler their first selection for the ninth consecutive draft. This time it was 6-foot-8 left-hander Kruz Schoolcraft. You can read Jeff Sanders’ story (here) on the first day of the draft
- The series victory over the Phillies was just the Padres’ fourth of the season against a team that currently has a winning record. They also won a series against the Brewers and Cubs and one against the Giants, against whom they also split a series. The Padres are 4-11-1 in series against teams with winning records and 13-1-1 in series against sub-.500 teams.
- Tatis was 2-for-3 with two walks yesterday and will start the second half on a six-game hitting streak and 15-game on-base streak. He is batting .429 (9-for-21) during the hitting streak and is getting on at a .456 clip during the on-base streak.
- Tatis also stole his 21st base and later was caught stealing for the third time this season. His being thrown out at second ended a stretch of 14 successful steal attempts. His steal of third base was his eighth of the season, one behind NL leader Trea Turner.
- Bogaerts reached base all four times he batted yesterday, going 2-for-2 with two walks. He has reached base in eight straight games and reached base twice in five of those games. He is batting .458 (11-for-24) with a .567 OBP during the streak and is batting .293 with a .759 OPS over his past 41 games.
- Bogaerts stole twice yesterday, increasing his season total to 15. He has only had more in a season once (19 in 2023).
- Manny Machado went 2-for-4 yesterday and finished the first half batting .292 with an .841 OPS. That is his second-best first-half OPS in six full seasons with the Padres. Machado has had a higher OPS after the break in each of his past four syseasons.
All right, that’s it for me.
A busy day awaits chasing down the Padres’ five All-Stars, their most to actually attend the game since 1998. (They had five All-Stars in 2024 and ‘21, but Tatis bowed out last year due to his leg injury and Darvish did not go in ‘21 while nursing a balky hip.
Check out our Padres page for my stories from Atlanta the next couple days and my second-half preview on Thursday.
There will be no newsletter during the All-Star break. So the next Padres Daily will be in your inbox Saturday morning after the Padres open the second half Friday in Washington.
Talk to you then.