President Donald Trump’s bizarre pivot from one extreme to the other in the Jeffrey Epstein fever swamps dominated the news in recent days, for understandable reasons. This was a preposterous stretch even for Trump — going from depicting Epstein’s reported 2019 suicide in a federal jail as part of a conspiracy to protect powerful Democratic pedophiles who were clients of Epstein’s sex-trafficking ring to portraying criticism of his administration for refusing to provide details on the case as a Hillary Clinton-led plot.
But it’s not exactly a leap to think that the White House welcomes distractions that keep attention away from topics it doesn’t like. Were it not for Epstein and immigration controversies, it might dawn on far more Americans that Trump’s vaunted tariff policies have not yielded the quick positives for the economy he predicted. The occasional signs that he understands this and would back down have mostly vanished.
This was apparent in his Monday announcement that the U.S. would impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the European Union as of Aug. 1. While it was accompanied by the usual bluster, the decision reflects what’s been obvious for months: Major trading partners aren’t so desperate for access to U.S. consumers that they will roll over for Trump. Many, including Canada and Japan, have proposed or launched retaliatory tariffs. The world is still on track for a trade war that nearly all independent analysts say is sure to hurt the U.S. economy.
Because it often takes months for tariffs’ effects to reach consumers, the full extent of the pain that’s coming Americans’ way has yet to be felt. But as The Wall Street Journal detailed this week, the signs are many that recent jumps in the cost of furniture, toys and clothing are looming for other goods as well. Yale University’s Budget Lab estimates that the average U.S. tariff rate will soon be 19.7%, up from 2.5% in January and the highest seen since 1933. Contrary to Trump’s claim, the Journal reported that most of this additional cost so far is being directly borne by U.S. consumers, who can expect to pay at least $2,300 more for purchases over the next year as a result.
The toll could be particularly severe locally. The San Diego County Building Industry Association said in April that it expects the price of a new home to go up by $7,500 to $10,000 because of a surge in costs of imported construction materials. The San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce has expressed deep concerns about the likely impacts of tariffs on the 93% of county businesses with 12 or fewer employees, which often lack substantial reserves and could shut down after just two or three bad months.
Meanwhile, about the only argument that Trump supporters are making for the positive effects of tariffs — the fact that container traffic at the Port of Los Angeles set a monthly record in June — requires mental gymnastics. Instead of the obvious explanation — U.S. importers eagerly bringing in as many different products as they can before high tariffs kick in — Trump allies insisted it reflected America’s economy quickly adjusting to his policies and thriving as a result.
Hey, if the president can get supporters to believe that he’s gone from the knight in shining armor fighting for the truth about Jeffrey Epstein to being a wronged victim if that truth is revealed, such pretzel logic won’t be much of a stretch.
Trump figured this out long ago. “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?” he said on Jan. 23, 2016, while campaigning in Sioux Center, Iowa. “It’s, like, incredible.” Indeed it is.